The Highlights:
With Haryana Assembly elections out of the way, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) now sets its eyes on the by-elections scheduled in Uttar Pradesh. Fresh off its success in Haryana, which it has taken for a third term in government, the BJP looks forward to a better position for itself in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts and party insiders believe that the BJP would be inclined toward an OBC-centric approach. That is a strategy that was mainly responsible for its earlier electoral successes.
Why does OBC Voters matter in UP?
The OBCs, as the name suggests, have been a key electoral force in Uttar Pradesh for long. They comprise more than 40% of the population. The recent electoral wins-the BJP triumph in the 2019 general election, for instance-can be significantly attributed to the party’s consolidation of the OBC vote. The party will further resort to this strategy before the bypolls, for example, in constituencies such as Ghosi, where OBCs will play a decisive role.
According to sources, the BJP seeks to promote itself as the strongest voice of OBCs by leveraging policies such as reservation and welfare programs that have been beneficial for backward classes. The party is likely to present these programs as its focus so as to scuttle the opposing parties who, despite having traditional support from OBC communities, find the same votes slipping into the BJP’s hands now.
Balancing Allies: A Story of Nishad Party
The more pressing the issue becomes for the BJP is to manage its alliance relation with a party like Nishad Party, which represents a section of OBC society within which lie the Nishads, also a fishing community. It has already expressed concern about its relevance in a BJP-led alliance after it seems to shift focus toward a large outreach among the OBC class.
Relations between the BJP and the Nishad Party have grown more taut in recent months, with the Nishad Party, insiders say, pressing for greater ticket allocations and a larger share in BJP’s campaign efforts for the bypolls. Meanwhile, the BJP has been cautious in striking a balance between the party’s interests and efforts to include its allies since it would realize that regional player Nishad Party would play a crucial role in the close battles of constituencies.
BJP’s Strategy Post-Haryana Win: Momentum Building in UP
The win for BJP in Haryana Assembly has given a welcome boost to its morale and the party is endeavoring to take this momentum into Uttar Pradesh. The BJP was able to win Haryana despite the tough contest presented by Congress, which had managed to garner a significant share of the vote. Analysts believe that the difference the BJP was able to make in Haryana was because it was able to consolidate backward class votes to its advantage-a playbook that it is keen to replicate in the UP bypolls.
This OBC focus is also viewed as the reaction from the Congress to try gaining inroads among the generally marginalized communities whose cutting-edge efforts have started to now begin showing opposite effects in several states. The strategy of the BJP here appears to be one of pre-emption of reversal in the loyalty of OBCs by consolidating its image of being a party for social and economic uplifment.
Opposition’s Counterattack: SP’s Struggle for the OBC Vote
Challenging the BJP’s OBC strategy in UP is something different. For one, Akhilesh Yadav and the Samajwadi Party have, during this campaign phase, decided to stake their claim firmly as the party in the race for the OBC vote. The SP has chosen to be vocally critical of the BJP outreach, throwing darts at the BJP’s commitment towards the backward communities. Akhilesh Yadav concentrated his campaign on drawing attention to the economic difficulties OBCs have faced with BJP currently in power, thereby appealing to those disappointed with the policy of BJP.
In the bypolls, SP’s desire to regain its traditional voter base becomes critical as any erosion in support to the BJP among the OBCs will severely affect the elections. A fight for the OBC vote will be quite evidently played out in the campaigns leading up to the bypolls as both parties will deploy their respective narratives in efforts to woo this critical target group.
Road Ahead: What the BJP and Its Allies Stand to Lose
The BJP senses victory in the Uttar Pradesh bypolls as its attempt to consolidate political hegemony in India’s most populous state before the 2025 Assembly polls. It would, in turn, cement its position as the number one party in UP and give a much needed thrust ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2026. A defeat, however can act as a rallying point for opposition parties and change the narrative around the state.
Simultaneously, the outcome of these by-elections may even redefine the relationship the BJP will have with its regional partners. Whether the Nishad Party and other such outfits will further fortify the alliance or expose cracks that may change electoral strategies going into the future are questions still to be answered. For the Nishad Party, how well it can assert itself in the near future will determine its fortunes within the alliance.
Conclusion: A Step with Long-Term Consequences
The BJP appears to realize that the political environment around it is one of a sea change. So an OBC-centric approach to the Uttar Pradesh bypolls could well become a winning strategy for the BJP, especially since it has emerged as the first major political win in its favour following the bashing it received in Haryana. Tests in UP would thus decide if this party and the current leadership have what it takes to hold on to its position – now for such a heterogenous electorate. With the BJP in the middle of juggling an alliance, and appealing to a broad cross-section, it’s going to be a blockbuster event, and the next few years of politics in the state will be influenced by its outcome.
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