Table of Contents
As election results approached the end of the 2024 Assemblies, exit polls became a buzzing affair with considerable change in the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir’s political dynamics. Early predictions reveal that there are chances for the Congress party to make a strong comeback in Haryana, while in the case of Jammu & Kashmir, an assembly is predicted to hang. Such results may cause enormous change in the ground politics of these regions and their governance and alliances during the coming years.
Congress on Track for Haryana Comeback
The exit poll results forecast a clear majority for the Congress party in Haryana. According to Axis My India and C-Voter estimates, Congress will win between 44 and 54 seats of the 90-member assembly, crossing the majority threshold of 46 seats. This would be a huge revival for Congress, which has been out of power in the state for nearly a decade.
On the other hand, the election is expected to project an estimated majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party since it will count between 19 and 29 seats. The win, if it happens, will then mar BJP’s aspiration of securing its third successive term in Haryana. The party has been reeling from voter discontent due to problems like unemployment and farmer unrest, which could have been at a crucial cost.
It is very unlikely that the Jannayak Janata Party, which had acted as a kingmaker in the 2019 elections, will have any more than a handful of seats, and thereby, lose its clout in this election season. Nor is AAP and INLD likely to shine, with both receiving a minuscule share of votes.
Hung Assembly Likely in Jammu & Kashmir
While Haryana may report a clearer outcome, for Jammu & Kashmir, it will be a hung assembly with no party expected to cross the majority mark. Exit polls indicate that the National Conference-Congress alliance will emerge as the largest but still short of a majority in the 90-member house. This would leave uncertain the political future of the region, with the possibility of complex coalition building and protracted negotiations.
The BJP, looking for a better consolation in Jammu, is going to be left well behind the projections. It will once again align with the usual trend of most the previous exit polls, which always failed to capture the mood of the voters in such a very complex scenario of J&K.
Other prominent contenders like PDP also likely to get a few seats and add to the fragmentation of results.
For the Two Regions
If these projections materialize, then a Congress return to power in Haryana would have major national fallout. For the party has been seeking to regain its footing in key states as it gets ready to face the general elections of 2024. A Haryana victory would galvanize its cadres and move it further into stronger positions against the BJP nationally. Bhupinder Singh Hooda would be among key Congress leaders who would likely figure prominently in the formation of government post election.
The hung assembly will be a further step toward political instability in J&K because all and sundry scramble to form alliances. Then this would perpetuate the fractured politics of the state wherein coalition governments have emerged as the rule. With BJP, NC, Congress, and PDP all playing for dominance, it will take much more than just ballot entries to arrive at governance in J&K
With the final results of 2024 Assembly elections approaching, exit polls portray a major political sea change in both Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. A likely win for Congress in Haryana might spell the beginning of things to come for the party as far as further political revival is concerned. In J&K, however, a hung assembly paints a saga of further political fragmentation in the region. The final vote count on October 8 will determine whether the predictions in these exit polls are correct, but until then, they give an indication of what may await the future of governance in these two crucial states.
For Latest News Updates Click Here